Global trade is being reshaped by escalating tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with the Nordic and European forestry industries directly affected. During 2025 and 2026, the United States, under President Donald Trump, introduced a series of trade measures that are altering the conditions for exports of timber, paper and pulp.
The developments are widely seen as one of the most significant shifts in international trade in recent years, as tariffs and countermeasures rapidly redefine market dynamics for the sector.
Tariffs hit key export products
Current tariff levels highlight how different parts of the forestry industry are affected. Pulp exports remain duty-free at 0 per cent, while paper and paperboard face tariffs of 10 per cent. The same rate applies to sawn timber and softwood raw materials.
Other wood products within the HS44 category are subject to tariffs of 15 per cent.
At the same time, the United States has imposed steep tariffs on several major trading partners. Canada faces tariffs of 35 per cent, although some products covered by the USMCA agreement are exempt. Brazil is subject to tariffs of up to 50 per cent on paper and paperboard, while China continues to face high tariff levels amid a prolonged trade dispute.
These measures are not isolated. They interact with broader trade tensions, contributing to increased volatility in global commodity markets, including timber and pulp.
EU and US locked in negotiations
Relations between the European Union and the United States remain marked by both negotiations and threats of countermeasures. In March 2026, the European Parliament voted to proceed with implementing a trade agreement, but introduced amendments aimed at ensuring US compliance.
At the same time, the EU has prepared retaliatory tariffs covering imports worth 93 billion euros if negotiations fail.
The past year has been characterised by rapid policy shifts. The US initially imposed tariffs of up to 30 per cent on EU goods, later reduced to 15 per cent following negotiations. Despite this adjustment, uncertainty remains over future tariff levels and conditions.
– These kinds of rapid changes create significant uncertainty for export industries, according to material from the Finnish industry association Metsäteollisuus ry.
New investigations and barriers emerge
Alongside tariffs, the United States is pursuing several investigations that could lead to additional trade barriers. A Section 301 investigation targets countries with suspected industrial overcapacity, including the EU and several Asian economies.
Another investigation focuses on imports linked to forced labour and covers around 60 of the largest US trading partners.
In addition, a Section 232 investigation into timber imports and their impact on national security is ongoing. Its outcome could justify further tariffs on wood products.
Administrative changes are also adding pressure. Companies must now actively apply for tariff refunds through new digital systems, increasing the administrative burden for exporters.
Impact on Sweden and Europe
For Sweden, where the forestry industry is a key export sector, the developments carry both direct and indirect consequences. The United States was the third-largest export market for Swedish forestry products in 2024.
Even where products are exempt from tariffs, trade is affected by higher supply chain costs, currency fluctuations and weaker demand.
There is also a risk of trade diversion. If Canadian or Brazilian exporters face higher tariffs, they may redirect volumes to other markets, increasing competition in Europe.
The broader trend points to a more fragmented global trading system, where geopolitical considerations increasingly outweigh purely economic factors.
Source: Finnish Forestry Association / Metsäteollisuus ry
Fact check:
US trade policy relies on several legal frameworks. Section 232 is used to justify tariffs on national security grounds, while Section 301 addresses trade imbalances and unfair practices. Both tools have become more prominent as global trade tensions have intensified.
