According to a new report from Wood Resource Quarterly, global demand for lumber declined in many regions during the summer and fall, log prices continued to trend downward. The Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) fell for the fifth consecutive quarter to $81.94/m3. The Index was down only 1.1 percent from the 2Q/12, which was the smallest quarter-over-quarter decline since world prices started to fall in early 2011. Sawlog prices are now back down to levels where they were two years ago.
- Wood fiber prices fell in the local currencies in most of the regions covered by the WRQ in the 3Q. However, because the US dollar weakened against most currencies, wood prices in US dollar terms did not decline as much this quarter.
- The Softwood Wood Fiber Price Index (SFPI), which is based in US dollars, was down another 0.5 percent from the 2Q/12 to US$100.05/odmt. It was the fifth consecutive quarterly decline and the index has now come down 8.7 percent since early 2010. The biggest price declines were seen in Northwest US, Germany and Russia.
- Hardwood fiber prices started to increase in some regions in the 3Q, which resulted in the first increase of the Hardwood Wood Fiber Price Index (HFPI) in over a year. The Index increased by $1.56/odmt from the 2Q/12 price to $106.44/odmt in the 3Q/12. Hardwood fiber prices increased the most in Russia, Eastern Canada and Brazil.
Global Pulp Markets
• The pulp market started to recover this fall after having been in decline for over a year. World shipments increased 11% from July to September.
• Softwood pulp (NBSK) prices have trended downward for more than a year from their record highs in the summer of 2011. This relatively long-lasting price decline seems to have come to an end this fall and higher prices are currently being negotiated.
• Hardwood pulp (BHKP) prices have not experienced the same price fall as NBSK prices. The recent price trends for pulp have resulted in a minimal price differential between softwood and hardwood pulp.
Global Lumber Markets
• Despite the weakening markets for lumber, six of the ten largest lumber-exporting countries in the world have shipped more lumber this year than last year.
• Housing starts in the US jumped to 872,000 units in September, a 35 percent increase y-o-y.
• North American lumber production rose for the third straight quarter in the 3Q/12.
